Forecast Fatigue and the Discipline of Preparation

I’ll admit it: I have forecast fatigue.

For more than a week, we listened as meteorologists warned of a big, epic, historic ice storm headed for the Southeast. The language was urgent. The visuals were dramatic. The message was clear—prepare now.

So we did.

Meals were planned and cooked ahead. Essentials were stocked. Plans were in place to operate without power for three to five days if necessary. Calendars were adjusted. Meetings were moved or tentatively rescheduled.

Then, as often happens in the Upstate, the pattern shifted.

The storm’s local impact was far less severe than predicted. Still, just over an inch of sleet and freezing rain was enough to shut things down for several days. Offices closed. Courts delayed. Normal routines were interrupted.

And that’s the part worth paying attention to.

Despite the forecast fatigue, most people listened. They adjusted their behavior. They prepared. And when conditions became unsafe, even briefly, those preparations mattered.

For law firms and other professional service firms, this dynamic feels familiar.

We deal with forecasts all the time: caseload projections, revenue expectations, staffing needs, technology investments, regulatory changes. Not every prediction plays out exactly as expected. Some risks don’t fully materialize. Some disruptions arrive smaller, or differently, han anticipated.

That doesn’t make preparation a waste.

In fact, preparation is one of the most underappreciated disciplines in well-run professional firms. Firms that had remote access tested, clear communication protocols in place, and defined decision-making authority didn’t scramble. Files kept moving. Clients stayed informed. Teams knew what to do.

What might look like “over-preparing” in hindsight was actually operational maturity.

There’s also a leadership lesson here. Teams take cues from how firm leadership responds to uncertainty. Early communication, thoughtful planning, and a focus on people over optics build trust, and that trust doesn’t disappear just because the worst-case scenario didn’t unfold.

Forecast fatigue is real. But in professional services, tuning out early warnings altogether is rarely the right response. The cost of modest preparation is almost always lower than the cost of being caught flat-footed.

As firms look ahead to 2026, this is a reminder worth keeping in mind: disciplined preparation grounded in data, clarity, and flexibility matters far more than getting every forecast exactly right.